A recent peer-reviewed study highlights an often overlooked threat to cocoa production amidst the widespread display of vibrant chocolate boxes for Halloween. According to Anna Lea Albright, the lead researcher at Harvard University, heavy rainfall poses a more significant weather risk to cocoa than heat or drought, contrary to common belief.
The surge in cocoa prices in recent years, with a tonne currently priced at around $6,000 US, has impacted consumers. Factors contributing to this price hike include heavy flooding in West Africa, the world’s largest cocoa-producing region supported by over two million farmers.
Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, expressed the challenges faced due to excessive rainfall hindering crop management and harvest. While climate change exacerbates extreme rainfall events, the study suggests potential interventions to mitigate the impact on cocoa production, a crop enjoyed by billions worldwide.
The research, focusing on Ghana as the second-largest cocoa producer globally, underlines the adverse effects of extreme rainfall on cocoa yields, particularly during flowering seasons. Excessive moisture can harm sensitive cocoa flowers and young pods, leading to lower productivity and increased fungal infections like black pod disease.
The study also indicates a clear climate signal, noting that warmer air holds more moisture, resulting in intensified heavy rain events during the wet season. Despite the risk of extreme rainfall, the region faces potential drought due to the El Niño phenomenon, affecting cocoa production further.
Apart from climatic risks, the study highlights non-climatic threats such as aging trees and illegal mining, posing additional challenges to cocoa production. The need for infrastructure investment and improved farming practices emerges as essential solutions to enhance resilience against climate shocks and ensure sustainable cocoa farming practices.
As climate-related challenges make cocoa farming less attractive and more difficult in West Africa, experts raise concerns about the future viability of smallholder farming. The increasing price volatility and climate uncertainties may drive chocolate producers to explore alternatives to cocoa, such as cocoa-free chocolate made from ingredients like sunflower seeds, offering a more resilient supply chain.
Despite the historic underpricing of chocolate, particularly sourced from smallholder farmers in West Africa, the shift towards alternative chocolate options signals a potential transformation in the industry. Companies like Nestlé have already ventured into the cocoa-free chocolate market, signaling a shift towards more sustainable and climate-resilient chocolate production practices.