The latest update from the World Meteorological Organization indicates that the El Niño weather phenomenon is projected to escalate through 2027 and could potentially reach unprecedented strength, heightening the probability of extreme weather events in the upcoming year. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo conveyed during a news briefing in Geneva that if the current trend persists, this El Niño could surpass all previous records since monitoring began over four decades ago.
The United Nations weather agency revealed that its forecasts suggest a nearly 100% chance of El Niño continuing until February 2027, fueled by exceptionally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty in prediction is unprecedented, according to the WMO. A robust El Niño has the capacity to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather phenomena like typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the magnitude of the evolving El Niño event, stating that the planet is entering uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakening trade winds, typically occurs every two to seven years and can persist for up to a year, causing intense precipitation and droughts in Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates the El Niño to peak by the year’s end, with lingering effects expected to extend into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures. In response, Saulo affirmed that the WMO is enhancing readiness and early warning systems to mitigate potential risks.
She emphasized the WMO’s commitment to collaborating with UN partners and humanitarian organizations to provide crucial climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.