Australian researchers have introduced a groundbreaking online tool that can assess the environmental impact of fossil fuel projects, with a Canadian offshore oil venture serving as a test case. The tool, known as the Carbon Impacts Tracer, can predict the effects of proposed mines, offshore oil platforms, and other energy initiatives on global warming and related consequences.
According to Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, the tool connects the emissions of individual fossil fuel projects to their contribution to planetary warming and subsequent impacts. By utilizing carbon dioxide emission data from project assessments, the tool calculates the projected increase in global temperature and extrapolates real-world outcomes such as coral reef degradation, food production declines, and job losses.
The Carbon Impacts Tracer site has debuted with case studies on various Australian projects, a project in the U.K., and the proposed Bay du Nord offshore oil development in Canada. The project, spearheaded by Equinor, is anticipated to extract oil reserves exceeding 430 million barrels. The tool estimates that CO2 emissions from the Bay du Nord project could reach 188 megatonnes over two decades, resulting in a marginal temperature increase globally.
Moreover, the tool forecasts that the emissions could expose over 111,000 individuals to extreme heat and lead to 25 heat-related fatalities in Europe. It also predicts glacier loss of 4.6 square kilometres and a sea level rise of 0.025 millimetres, along with approximately 2,100 job losses and nearly 9,800 people slipping into poverty due to pollution from the project.
Although Equinor did not respond to requests for comments, Joel Finnis, a climatologist at Memorial University in Newfoundland and Labrador, emphasized the significance of the tool in presenting complex research findings in an accessible format. Maria Nawaz, from the University of New South Wales, highlighted the tool’s potential in strengthening climate litigation and enhancing public understanding of the environmental impacts of fossil fuel projects.
The Carbon Impacts Tracer is expected to be leveraged by governments, regulators, and the public to evaluate new projects and support climate accountability initiatives. It is deemed a valuable resource for insurers assessing project risks and economists projecting economic repercussions. The tool currently focuses on proposed developments but aims to include more projects as additional data becomes accessible.